Wednesday, October 22, 2008

It's the end of the world as we know it...!

Well, this is a great REM song I first heard driving out of my driveway back in 1988 while listening to 104.1, WBCN, the rock of Boston. I thought of the song after reading this Nouriel Roubini article.
The delusion that economic contraction in the US and other advanced economies would be short and shallow – a V-shaped six-month recession – has been replaced by certainty that this will be a long and protracted U-shaped recession, possibly lasting at least two years in the US and close to two years in most of the rest of the world. And, given the rising risk of a global systemic financial meltdown, the prospect of a decade-long L-shaped recession – like the one experienced by Japan after the collapse of its real estate and equity bubble – cannot be ruled out.

Indeed, the growing disconnect between increasingly aggressive policy actions and strains in the financial market is scary. When Bear Stearns’ creditors were bailed out to the tune of $30 billion in March, the rally in equity, money, and credit markets lasted eight weeks. When the US Treasury announced a bailout of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in July, the rally lasted just four weeks. When the $200 billion rescue of these firms was undertaken and their $6 trillion in liabilities taken over by the US government, the rally lasted one day.

BTW, the guy is more often right than wrong! (check this from another IB econ blog as well as this on Roubini and his home page here)

Here is the video of the song and here are the lyrics:

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